Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.729381 22.502441 24.415141 26.641857 29.175620 31.984199 35.353979
2025-10-12 17.850225 20.262793 23.044458 26.527991 30.830467 36.048144 42.979036
2025-10-19 16.032427 18.833049 22.234375 26.754277 32.739310 40.603975 52.108359
2025-10-26 14.519376 17.506763 21.283923 26.547140 33.930817 44.331805 60.948617
2025-11-02 13.333599 16.419020 20.450480 26.295902 34.915993 47.840044 70.277795
2025-11-09 12.448591 15.610284 19.861577 26.248287 36.107383 51.789822 81.364277
2025-11-16 11.673192 14.863299 19.258474 26.067133 37.012577 55.391674 92.911963
2025-11-23 11.009949 14.206669 18.706131 25.870129 37.821269 58.937266 105.540753
2025-11-30 10.432510 13.620904 18.194892 25.660339 38.546967 62.441686 119.412440
2025-12-07 9.964627 13.154981 17.815119 25.604638 39.508106 66.571397 136.560755
2025-12-14 9.514630 12.682245 17.382634 25.406801 40.166957 70.216283 154.277407
2025-12-21 9.350520 12.620311 17.573435 26.269085 42.930256 79.040834 192.448060
2025-12-28 8.941700 12.170212 17.129403 26.004146 43.499358 83.162738 219.193990
2026-01-04 8.616169 11.829818 16.838523 25.985163 44.575902 88.865663 257.134042
2026-01-11 8.370579 11.598643 16.707954 26.243010 46.280340 96.750642 313.468288
2026-01-18 8.063475 11.252512 16.360718 26.057266 46.982691 102.151250 365.779341
2026-01-25 7.771429 10.914779 16.004845 25.819119 47.529475 107.316699 425.730399
2026-02-01 7.534106 10.652845 15.761158 25.775399 48.526699 114.269474 512.161378
2026-02-08 7.292408 10.371646 15.465963 25.600036 49.179372 120.391015 609.212474
2026-02-15 7.064722 10.102744 15.176080 25.408567 49.765038 126.568044 728.283597
2026-02-22 6.849989 9.845666 14.892301 25.204355 50.290143 132.805268 876.017119
2026-03-01 6.670630 9.639779 14.688578 25.150158 51.208212 141.046327 1099.166073
2026-03-08 6.482403 9.410950 14.430542 24.957415 51.723589 147.958311 1358.874171